Category Archives: Michael Gunner
Northern Territory: New Gunner Labor Ministry
Michael Gunner, the new Chief Minister of the Northern Territory announced his first Cabinet of three, on 1 September, following Labor’s victory in the NT election held on 27 August 2016.
On 11 September 2016, today, he announced his second Cabinet; the new Ministers are listed below, with some short biographies*.
Had Lynne Walker been re-elected the Member for Nhulunbuy, she would have been Deputy Chief Minister, and the closeness of the vote in that election delayed finalisation of the full Ministry.
All other Labor MPs have been made Assistant Ministers, listed below, and the Government has decided to support the current Speaker, former CLP MLA Kezia Purick, continuing in that role.
The new Gunner Government has moved rapidly to terminate Chief Executives, amalgamate agencies, and implement other Machinery of Government changes: www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/08/northern-territory-axes-ceos-and-amalgamates-departments-under-public-service-shake-up
The election for a Legislative Assembly of 25 saw the Country-Liberal Party government of Adam Giles reduced to 2 seats, Labor secure 18, and independents have 5. Of the 25, twelve are women; 6 identify as being of aboriginal descent. Of the Cabinet of 8, 5 are women – a majority; 1 identifies as being of aboriginal descent.
This is the greatest proportion of women in any legislature** of any Australian jurisdiction, ever, and the (equal) greatest proportion of indigenous members in any legislature** of any Australian jurisdiction, ever – matching part of the 2005 to 2008 term of the NT Legislative Assembly.
* These biographies were sourced from the Northern Territory ALP website here, the ABC’s Antony Green’s NT election website here, Wikipedia, here, and personal knowledge.
** Technically it isn’t a Parliament.
Northern Territory: 3 Ministers Only in First Gunner Ministry
Michael Gunner, the new Chief Minister of the Northern Territory, announced his first Cabinet on Wednesday, following Labor’s victory in the NT election held on 27 August 2016.
Because counting continues and it’s not perfectly certain some potential Ministers will be elected, he’s done what Gough Whitlam did in 1972 and appointed a very small Ministry holding multiple portfolios: Gunner himself holds 41 portfolios, listed at the bottom of this article, in addition to Chief Minister, while the two others hold one portfolio each.
Here are the new Ministers, with some short biographies*. The final results in the election for a Legislative Assembly of 25 are almost certain to see the Country-Liberal Party government of Adam Giles reduced to 2 seats, Labor secure 18, and independents with 5. Of the 25, it is expected, once all seats are declared, twelve will be women; 6 will identify as being of aboriginal descent (the original article was in error, saying 7 indigenous Members would be elected – it will in fact be six, and the article has now been corrected – thanks to Ken Vowles for pointing out my error.)
This is the greatest proportion of women in any legislature** of any Australian jurisdiction, ever, and the greatest number and proportion of indigenous members in any legislature** of any Australian jurisdiction, ever.
Michael Gunner is also the first Northern Territory-born Chief Minister.
* These biographies were sourced from the Northern Territory ALP website here, the ABC’s Antony Green’s NT election website here, Wikipedia, here, and personal knowledge.
** Technically it isn’t a Parliament.
*** As well as Premier, until a new Cabinet is appointed in the next two weeks, Chief Min Michael Gunner also holds the portfolios of Minister for Police, Fire and Emergency Services, Minister for Tourism, Minister for Northern and Central Australia , Minister for Economic Development and Major Projects, Minister for Indigenous Affairs, Minister for Correctional Services , Minister for Business, Minister for Racing, Gaming and Licensing, Minister for Asian Engagement and Trade, Minister for Employment and Training, Minister for Public Employment , Minister for Corporate and Information Services, Minister for Multicultural Affairs, Minister for Defence Industries, Minister for Senior Territorians, Minister for Lands and Planning , Minister for Mines and Energy, Minister for Children and Families, Minister for Health, Minister for Disability Services, Minister for Mental Health Services , Minister for Education, Minister for Transport, Minister for Infrastructure, Minister for Essential Services, Minister for Veterans Support , Minister for Primary Industry and Fisheries, Minister for Land Resource Management, Minister for the Environment, Minister for Arts and Museums, Minister for Sport and Recreation, Minister for Young Territorians, Minister for Local Government and Community Services, Minister for Housing, Minister for Parks and Wildlife, Minister for Men’s Policy, Minister for Women’s Policy, Minister for Statehood
Labor WON’T get a 20% Swing in NT
The Northern Territory’s only daily paper has got its facts very, very wrong, again – Labor WON’T get a 20% swing at the impending election.
This story www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/labor-on-track-for-landslide-win-in-nt-election/news-story/2f05cc0cfb5a5b000b21dca80f64b3dc says Labor is currently on track to receive a 20% swing on 27 August, Election Day. That’s hopelessly wrong, and significantly overstates the swing to Labor.
Recent Electoral Act changes are the biggest reason the reported poll results are wrong. The biggest change is from compulsory preferential voting, to optional. The Country-Liberal Party (CLP) and some independents will run a “just vote one” campaign, and to the extent this campaign is successful it will mean Labor has to rely far more on its primary vote for the anti-Government swing.
In this poll, Labor’s primary vote is LESS than at the last election.
As is sometimes the case in the Northern Territory, there may be stooge candidates run, to reduce the prospects of a primary protest (anti-CLP) vote going to Labor.
Second, other Electoral Act amendments ban campaigning within 100 metres of a polling place. This change has the impact of reducing the capacity of voters to vote for the Party/candidate of their true choice, because it increases the prospects of their not knowing who candidates are – will they mark their ballot paper at all, or donkey vote instead? There are other changes, too, which can be found here http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/northern_territory_elections/ and here www.ntec.nt.gov.au/MediaAndPublications/Documents/Election%20Newsletter%20No.%2003-%2009%20March%202016.pdf. No-one can know how this will impact voting overall.
Third, it is a 887 sample, but it is a mostly (entirely?) urban/rural residential sample, done by phone. The margin of error is said to be plus or minus 3%. The results are weighted demographically, but it’s almost impossible to poll many aboriginal town camps or remote indigenous communities, so they must be under-represented, or not included. It really says nothing about the vote in such locations, and in the NT town camps and remote communities are important determinants of results in individual seats.
Fourth, the report draws conclusions about different parts of the Northern Territory, but the sample size for those geographic and demographic segments is much smaller than 887, so the margin of error will be significantly larger.
Fifth, this reporting of the poll impacts voter intention, and will have multiple outcomes: reducing the enthusiasm for a protest vote amongst those who are nervous about a Labor Government, reducing the enthusiasm for those who want a change in Government to bother voting, increasing the commitment of pro-CLP voters to make the effort, and generating complacency amongst Labor candidates and campaigners. There’s also alleged to be a bandwagon effect, of people backing a perceived winner, but I’ve seen no research suggesting it is significant in state- or national-level elections. Some voters do change their vote according to expectations.
Journalists often sensationalise and misrepresent, or simply misunderstand, polling, but this piece by the NT News is worse than most.
New Northern Territory Government-in-Waiting
The new Northern Territory Labor Shadow Cabinet announced today by Territory Opposition Leader Michael Gunner includes a new portfolio of Open and Transparent Government*, to be held by the Opposition Leader himself.
Michael might be a bit unknown to those outside the Territory, even though he has a very good chance to be the next Chief Minister. You can learn a bit about him here: www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-15/who-is-nt-labor-politician-michael-gunner/6392026 and here http://territorylabor.com.au/Our-Team/Michael-Gunner.
Labor has only eight Members in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly, and all but Delia Lawrie (recently resigned as Opposition Leader) have been given Shadow portfolios.
The portfolios:
Michael Gunner Leader of the Opposition
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Lynne Walker Deputy Leader of the Opposition
Biography here. |
Natasha Fyles Opposition Whip
Biography here. |
Gerry McCarthy
Biography here. |
Ken Vowles
Biography here. |
Nicole Manison
Biography here. |
Lauren Moss
Biography here. |