Category Archives: Communication
You can download it from here: http://bit.ly/2jXqOVv
The Australian Labor Party had never governed in the Territory, and never looked like they would win the 1997 Election. Labor polling showed them heading for a bloodbath – they were starting with only 7 seats in the 25-seat Legislative Assembly, but Party polling showed they were on track to lose several more.
From early that year, Labor’s caucus led by Maggie Hickey seized on the many issues of weakness for the governing Country-Liberal Party (CLP) and worked with real focus in the run-up to Election Day. Labor’s polling showed the electorate had little regard for the CLP, and the aggressive advertising campaign closely paraphrased the research findings.
The TV ads, in particular, were controversial and met with a mixed reception, but all evidence is that the average voters, mostly, loved them:
- CLP Strategy Meeting: http://bit.ly/2wQO5NN
- Snouts in the Trough: http://bit.ly/2xwcZPW
- Tighten Your Belts: http://bit.ly/2xwd5qM
- Crime in the Northern Territory 1: http://bit.ly/2iEKagI
- Crime in the Northern Territory 2: http://bit.ly/2vq0Vm1
The result? Labor lost one seat, for local reasons quite unconnected with the main campaign.
Compare Michigan and Pennsylvania. Donald Trump clearly won the latter through a massive turnout of rarely-votes in the middle of the state (see www.philly.com/philly/infographics/400507161.html) and appears to have won the former by winning over previous Democrat voters (see www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/local/michigan/2016/11/11/donald-trump-michigan-counties-clinton/93641908/) – though more analysis will give a better picture.
That’s two entirely different ways of winning, in two important states.
Obama in the contested 2008 Primary had a successful State-by-State win plan: did Trump have the same in 2016? These different patterns in two critical states suggest perhaps he did.
Kellyanne Conway was his final campaign manager http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/the-woman-who-made-president-trump/news-story/766f339657fcb2429068b200adf166b5 and deserves major credit for his victory, but she took over only a scant 12 weeks out from election day – could she have created and executed such a state-by-state plan in so short a time? Her predecessors, incompetent and possibly corrupt, seem unlikely to have had such insight and coherence.
Insider-tell-all books after the 2008 and 2012 election cycle answered many questions about internal strategy development – the 2016 version may tell us whether there was such a plan, or whether luck and happenstance played a bigger part.
However, Kellyanne achieved in less than three months something much more formidable: she created a new candidate and a new election, and hence a winning coalition, by taming Trump.
Before the Presidential Debates, Trump had set about making himself the outsider who could upturn politics-as-usual and fix a failed system. His plain speaking, deliberately provocative and deliberately different from Republican orthodoxy, had built a loyal following amongst those alienated from the “American Dream”, but failed to broadly inspire evangelical Christians, and alienated moderate Republicans. His support, lacking those two components of the Republican base, was insufficient for victory.
Just prior to the October 19 third debate, his language moderated, his insults decreased, and the content of his ad-hoc statements became more coherent. At the third debate, he pivoted, pressed the case for the Republican Right’s hot-button policies, and they flocked to his banner. Post-debate, he became increasingly a more polished and less alienating candidate. Some of the moderate Republicans, contemplating voting for Hillary, moved back to the fold.
To the Republican base, Trump now looked – more-or-less – like a Republican.
Quite suddenly, the Clinton campaign faced a different candidate, who now led a coalition of the disaffected and the Republican base, to which they had no adequate counter. It’s not even clear they noticed the new candidate.
(Half of Ethical Consulting Services (Mike) has been embedded in the campaign since mid-October.)
Mike is embedded within the US Presidential campaign, until US election day on 8 November. and has been blogging about the campaign since early October.
Half of the Ethical Consulting Services team – that would be Mike – is off, shortly, to embed within the US Presidential campaign, in Philadelphia.
This blog http://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/ is nearly always the best summary of where the competing Presidential stand in the polls. It’s easy to pick which states are critical, by checking out their maps and the blog.
Other elections are going on, as well:
- The US House of Representatives: All 435 seats are up for election, and some commentators are suggesting the Democrats could take control of the House:
- www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016.html and this article are good for basic information: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2016;
- The US Senate: Numbers are tighter, with 34 seats up for election: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html and basic information is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016;
- And Governorships (12 states and two territories) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2016 and dog-catcher and sheriff across the country! Some places elect judges, police chiefs and the folks who run elections – a friend of Mike’s was a few years ago elected to run elections in her home city.
Mike is hoping to blog about his experiences while he’s away, but these campaigns are hard work and he’s not promising.
And, why Philadelphia? Pennsylvania is usually a highly competitive state for the Presidential ballot, so campaigners get to see world-class campaigning (Mike was there in 2004 for John Kerry’s campaign, and 2008 and 2012 for the two Obama campaigns); plus, the polls are very tight in Pennsylvania right now, and Donald Trump has previously said he’ll target the State.
This also means our “Last Week in Queensland” weekly blogs and newsletters will be having a break, from 4 October to 21 November.
This short article has some great ideas for making brainstorming sessions work better – watch out for us to be inflicting them upon you, and feel free to test them out for yourself:
* Here’s a bit of an explanation if you have never met “brainstorming” before and aren’t sure what it is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brainstorming.