Monthly Archives: January 2017

Last Week in Queensland – 30 January 2017

last-week-logo-2Significant changes to lockout laws were announced, the State economy picked up, domestic gas reservation got industry excited, and the Federal Government seemed intent on usurping the State Opposition’s role, last week in Queensland*.

 

Governing

 

Opposition and Crossbench

 

Politics

 

Community

 

Economy and Infrastructure

 

Parliamentqld-parliament

  • Queensland’s Parliament next sits from Tuesday 14 February to Thursday 16 February
  • The Queensland Parliament’s summary of what’s new, including newly-introduced and passed legislation, is here www.parliament.qld.gov.au/work-of-assembly/whats-new
  • Federal Parliament next sits from Tuesday 7 February to Thursday 9 February

 

Sleeper Issues?

Mark Bailey, Minister for Energy et al

Mark Bailey, Minister for Energy et al

 

 

 

 

 

* We’re not representing that this is a complete coverage of news in Queensland – it certainly isn’t, and it’s what we find interesting or important, and sometimes what’s unusual.  Some of the links will require subscriptions to read content.

 

 

Last Week in Queensland – 23 January 2017

last-week-logo-2It’s probably been an irritating time for Government last week in Queensland, with many small unhelpful news stories*, and little cut-through of pro-Government news.

 

Governing

 

Opposition and Crossbench

MP for Cairns Billy Gordon

MP for Cairns Billy Gordon

 

Politics

 

Communityhanson-van

 

Economy and Infrastructure

 

Parliament

Queensland's Parliament's Speaker Wellington

Queensland’s Parliament’s Speaker Wellington

  • Queensland’s Parliament next sits from Tuesday 14 February to Thursday 16 February
  • The Queensland Parliament’s summary of what’s new, including newly-introduced and passed legislation, is here www.parliament.qld.gov.au/work-of-assembly/whats-new
  • Federal Parliament next sits from Tuesday 7 February to Thursday 9 February

 

Sleeper Issues?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* We’re not representing that this is a complete coverage of news in Queensland – it certainly isn’t, and it’s what we find interesting or important, and sometimes what’s unusual.  Some of the links will require subscriptions to read content.

 

 

Why Trump Won 2*

Today, this guy becomes US President

Today, this guy becomes US President

Almost every election victory involves stitching together a coalition, and Donald Trump did so successfully.

Asking why Donald Trump won is quite a different question from “why did Hillary Clinton lose?”, and that latter question will be addressed in another article soon.

The difference between Donald Trump’s victory and a defeat was very small: small margins in a small number of states.**

Because the margin was so narrow in those three or four states which Donald Trump won by small margins, many things, some big and some small, made the difference between a win and a loss.

Because so many events, activities, mistakes, and so on could each have driven the comparatively small margins by which Donald Trump secured victory, it means every commentator’s preferred reason(s) for victory can be claimed as THE reason for the result – everyone is right, and everyone wins a prize.

However there are bigger reasons why Donald Trump was able to secure victory, whilst so obviously unfit for the job. He should have been, by most criteria***, 30% behind and not just 2.2%.

For 23 years, Republican Party Members of Congress, bloggers, activists, and more, attacked Hillary Clinton. Regardless of the validity of those attacks, they constructed a consistent narrative about the character of Hillary Clinton, and built substantial distrust and dislike of her. That branding of Hillary Clinton was in place before she nominated, was present for the whole of the campaign, and was referenced often by many amongst Donald Trump’s supporters.  According to this narrative, she is an out-of-touch, remote elitist, focussed on her own advancement, and untrustworthy.

With many voters there was also a significant element of misogyny, synergising with the Republicans’ long-term branding of Hillary Clinton, which undoubtedly influenced their choice of candidates.

The Republican Party’s management of Hillary Clinton’s image, and the Trump campaign’s exploitation of that image, drove some voters towards Donald Trump, but also drove some voters, normally voting Democrat, to choose to abstain (see here about US voluntary voting).

The active things the Trump campaign deployed included the exploitation and maximisation of discontent: he branded himself as the voice of frustration, the voice of change, anti-elite, and anti-the system, which contrasted with Hillary Clinton’s image as part of “the system”.

His pivot to Republican orthodoxy, evident during the third presidential debate, was the point at which he began to win back the support of the Republican base, and their activists.

News articles are only now emerging which describe his under-the-radar campaign organisation, which to most commentators during the campaign did not appear to exist. Recent articles propose the data capabilities of the Trump campaign are competitive with the previously superior Democratic party machine, and the Obama campaign: while this may be the case, there is currently insufficient information in the public domain to allow a judgement.

The Trump campaign’s messaging was also effective: it was consistent, relentless, careful, and emotion-focused.

So Donald Trump was able to overcome what should have been unelectability, because

  • the Republican Party had invested cleverly in constructing his opponent’s image over the long-term, and the Trump campaign exploited that investment
  • his own campaign probably functioned more effectively than most people gave it credit for
  • his messaging was effective and delivered the voters he needed, and
  • he built a winning coalition of voters: most of the Republican base, and voters discontented with many elements of the American system of government.

 

* Just in time for inauguration day, this evaluation is based on observations from within the campaign and reading about it

** Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote by around 2.2%.

*** We’re going to talk about those differing criteria in the coming article about the reasons for Hillary Clinton’s loss.

 

 

Last Week in Queensland – 16 January 2017

last-week-logo-2As most of Queensland suffered great humidity, dominating the news* last week was the defection of a former Liberal-National Party Minister Steve Dickson**, to the One Nation Party.

 

Governing

 

Opposition and Crossbench

One Nation MP, Steve Dickson

One Nation MP, Steve Dickson

 

Politics

Deputy Premier Jackie Trad, talking about daylight saving time this week

Deputy Premier Jackie Trad, talking about daylight saving time this week

Community

 

Economy and Infrastructure

 

ParliamentOpening Parliament 2015

  • Queensland’s Parliament next sits from Tuesday 14 February to Thursday 16 February
  • The Queensland Parliament’s summary of what’s new, including newly-introduced and passed legislation, is here www.parliament.qld.gov.au/work-of-assembly/whats-new
  • Federal Parliament next sits from Tuesday 7 February to Thursday 9 February

 

 

 

 

 

* We’re not representing that this is a complete coverage of news in Queensland – it certainly isn’t, and it’s what we find interesting or important, and sometimes what’s unusual.  Some of the links will require subscriptions to read content.

 

** Fascinatingly, at the time of writing, someone seems to have deleted his Ministerial portfolios from his Wikipedia entry.  He was appointed Minister for National Parks, Recreation, Sport and Racing in the Newman Government in April 2012.

 

 

Last Week in Queensland – 9 January 2017

last-week-logo-2It was a happy new year for party animals, as Queensland last week learned the Government is awaiting a report which might see licenced premises lock-out laws changed; fallout from Queensland Rail’s Christmas Day service failures also dominated the news*.

 

Governing

 

Opposition and Crossbench

 

Politics

Stirling Hinchliffe, Minister responsible for QR

Stirling Hinchliffe, Minister responsible for QR

 

Community

 

Economy and Infrastructure

 

Parliamentparl house

  • Queensland’s Parliament next sits from Tuesday 14 February to Thursday 16 February
  • The Queensland Parliament’s summary of what’s new, including newly-introduced and passed legislation, is here www.parliament.qld.gov.au/work-of-assembly/whats-new
  • Federal Parliament next sits from Tuesday 7 February to Thursday 9 February

 

Sleeper Issues?

 

 

 

 

 

* We’re not representing that this is a complete coverage of news in Queensland – it certainly isn’t, and it’s what we find interesting or important, and sometimes what’s unusual.  Some of the links will require subscriptions to read content.